RT Journal Article
T1 Political Cycles in Latin America: More Evidence on the Brazilian Economy
T2 Ciclos políticos en América Latina: Más evidencia sobre la economía brasileña
A1 Costa Junior, Celso José
A1 García-Cintado, Alejandro
A1 Hidalgo-Pérez, Manuel
K1 Political cycles
K1 Monetary policy
K1 Fiscal policy
K1 Blinder-Watson decomposition
K1 Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model
AB This paper aims to shed additional light on the existence of opportunistic and partisan political-business cycles in the Brazilian economy over the 1996-2016 period. To that end, it relies on two different approaches: (I) an Oaxaca model in the spirit of Blinder and Watson (2016); and (II) a DSGE model where fiscal and monetary policies are treated as political- regime dependent (Milani, 2010). By and large, our results from both exercises show that there existed an opportunistic behavior by all the governments studied as regards fiscal policy, and that political ideology played a role in shaping macroeconomic policies in some of the administrations that ran the country within the time span considered. Specifically, as our DSGE exercise illustrates, President Dilma Rouseff’s fiscal management differed significantly from previous governments’. In addition, we do not find any evidence of political business cycle of any type when it comes to monetary policy, in line with what the consensus in this literature states for the case of Brazil.
PB CIDE
YR 2021
FD 2021-04-01
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10433/19888
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10433/19888
LA en
NO Costa Jr, et al. Lat Am Econ Rev (2021) 30:8
NO Financial support by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through grant ECO2017-86780-R (AEI/FEDER, UE) and Junta de Andalucía through I+D+i project P20−00808 is gratefully acknowledged.
NO Proyectos de investigaciónFECYT -- PROPUESTAS DE MEJORA PARA LA ECONOMIA ESPAÑOLA: DESEMPLEO, EMPA...Junta de Andalucía a través del Proyecto I+D+i P20−00808
NO Universidad Pablo de Olavide. Departamento de Economía, Métodos Cuantitativos e Historia Económica
NO Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa (Brasil). Departamento de Economia
DS RIO
RD May 9, 2026