RT Journal Article
T1 The accuracy of forecasts made for the structure of consumer basket: a comparative analysis between Euro area and Romania
T2 La exactitud de las predicciones para la estructura de cesta del consumo: un análisis comparativo entre la zona euro y Rumanía
A1 Bratu (Simionescu), Mihaela
K1 Accuracy indicators
K1 Consumer basket
K1 Forecasts
K1 Harmonized index of consumer prices
K1 Markov chains
AB In this study, the Markov chain method was used to predict the structure of consumer basket for euro zone and Romania, a country that tries to fulfill the entrance conditions in euro area, by using the same methodology for the determination of harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The ex-post assessment of forecasts for 2010-2012 evidences the superiority of forecasts accuracy for euro area based on this method. The highest degree of accuracy in each territorial unit is registered for services weights, according to U Theil's statistic, even if the absolute indicators for accuracy are lower for other weights predictions. It is anticipated that for 2013 the Markov chain method will predict the best foreach consumer basket the food weights forecasts for euro area and the services weights predictions for Romania.
PB Universidad Pablo de Olavide.
SN 1886-516X
YR 2013
FD 2013
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10433/366
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10433/366
LA en
NO Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa Vol.15 (junio de 2013) p. 87-100
NO Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa Vol.15 (junio de 2013) p. 87-100
NO Clasificación JEL: E31, E37
DS RIO
RD May 22, 2026