RT Journal Article
T1 Contrasting growth responses in Himalayan trees to future climate
A1 Dhyani, Rupesh
A1 Casas Gómez, Pablo
A1 Schneider, Lea
A1 Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl
A1 Thakur, Shinny
A1 Shekhar, Mayank
A1 Joshi, Rajesh
A1 Kuniyal, Jagdish Chandra
A1 Bhattacharyya, Amalava
A1 Singh, Surendra Pratap
A1 Linares Calderón, Juan Carlos
K1 Hindu-Kush
K1 Himalaya
K1 Tree rings
K1 Monsoon
K1 Westerlies
K1 Basal Area Increment
K1 Future warming
AB Rising temperatures and shifting regional precipitation patterns are exerting significant impact on tree growth in the Himalayan region. Despite growing concern about global warming, the regional- and species-specific growth responses to future climate scenarios remain poorly quantified across the two contrasting precipitation regimes (Eastern-monsoon vs Western-westerly) of the Himalaya. We analyzed 3370 time series of tree-ring width data of 14 dominant tree species in the Himalaya occurring between 1750 and 4100 m of elevation covering a large longitudinal monsoon-related environmental gradient. With Linear Mixed Models (LMMs), we predicted Basal Area Increment (BAI) trends for different temperature and precipitation changes under four representative concertation pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Results show contrasting patterns: in the Eastern region, species such as Cedrus deodara and Pinus roxburghii are projected to decline by 23–67 % in BAI by the end of the 21th century under all the climate scenarios due to warming-induced moisture stress. Conversely, in the Western region, species like Picea smithiana and Pinus wallichiana shows projected gain in BAI up 100 % likely due to enhanced winter and spring precipitation from westerlies. Likely increased forest carbon sequestration in selected species in the Western region highlights the importance of spatially targeted climate informed forest management. Our results evidence the need for conservation strategies in the Eastern region, while adaptive management should be considered in the Western region to maintain Himalayan forest resilience and sustainability in the face of future warming.
PB Elsevier
YR 2025
FD 2025-05-30
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10433/23953
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10433/23953
LA en
NO Rupesh Dhyani, Pablo Casas-Gómez, Lea Schneider, Raúl Sánchez-Salguero, Shinny Thakur, Mayank Shekhar, Rajesh Joshi, Jagdish Chandra Kuniyal, Amalava Bhattacharyya, Surendra Pratap Singh, Juan Carlos Linares, Contrasting growth responses in Himalayan trees to future climate, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 986, 2025, 179700, ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179700.
NO Dpto. Sistemas Físicos, Químicos y Naturales
DS RIO
RD May 3, 2026