%0 Journal Article
%A González Rodríguez, Paula
%A Passarelli, Francesca
%A Rebollo-Sanz, Yolanda F.
%T Losing Office, Switching Sides: Evidence from Spanish Municipal Elections
%D 2026
%U https://hdl.handle.net/10433/27204
%X Using data on nearly 190,000 candidates across five Spanish municipal elections (2003–2019), we estimate the causal effect of electoral defeat on party switching. We combine a high-dimensional fixed effects panel model with a regression discontinuity design exploiting the quasi-random assignment of council seats under Spain's closed-list D'Hondt system. Both approaches yield consistent evidence that not securing a council seat is associated with a higher probability of changing party affiliation by 2.1 to 2.3 percentage points—a 13.5% to 14.5% relative increase. Additionally, regression estimates show that party switching is more strongly linked to better future electoral outcomes among non-elected switchers than among candidates who switch while holding a seat. Our results support the theory that politicians are primarily motivated by office-seeking ambitions and highlight the strategic nature of party switching in local politics.
%K Party switching
%K Party labels
%K Political defectors
%K Closed-list systems
%K Politicians
%K Office-seeking ambition
%K Spain Municipal elections
%K Regression discontinuity
%~