Evaluating Soil Threats Under Climate Change Scenarios in the Andalusia Region, Southern Spain

Abstract

European policies can be relevant to protect soils under climate change scenarios and therefore preserve the wide variety of functions and services provided by the soil. The European Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection will require member states to identify areas under risk from various soil threats and establish procedures to achieve sustainability. Five models Terraza, Cervatana, Sierra, Raizal, and Pantanal included in the Mediterranean Land Evaluation Information System decision support system packages were used to identify areas vulnerable to various soil threats under climate change scenarios in the Andalusia region. While Terraza and Cervatana forecast general land use capability for a broad series of possible agricultural uses, the Sierra model predicts forestry land suitability for the presence/absence of 22 typical Mediterranean forest species. Raizal and Pantanal models predict soil erosion vulnerability, contamination, and other processes. Interpretation of results in different scenarios allows quantifying the effects of climate change in terms of agricultural productivity, forestry land suitability, erosion, and contamination risks. The obtained results allow to identify detailed vulnerable areas and formulate site-specific management plans for soil protection. Climate change is expected to impact crop growth with a higher impact on summer crops (corn, sunflower, and cotton). The results show a potential opportunity for reforestation (Quercus spp.) in future climate scenarios, while other species such as Castanea sativa will not be suitable in the study area by 2070 and 2100. Soil contamination and erosion show only slight differences between the current and future scenario of climate change.