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Conflicto distributivo y politica de ingresos en torno al tipo de cambio real en una economía semiindustrializada agroexportadora

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2019-11-30
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Universidad Pablo de Olavide
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Se plantea un conflicto de tipo ricardiano. Terratenientes latifundistas producen bienes salario exportables y consumen bienes de lujo importados; industriales pequeños producen manufacturas no transables con costes hundidos importando bienes de capital; los asalariados consumen bienes exportables y manufacturas no transables. Las cantidades se miden en unidades físicas y los precios en dinero fiduciario. La divisa internacional es fiduciaria. No existe equilibrio de economía pura. Equilibrio de precios no implica pleno empleo. Según la gestión política, un incremento (reducción) del tipo de cambio real beneficia (perjudica) a exportadores, reduce (aumenta) el salario real y tiene efectos oscilantes en beneficios industriales, generando alianzas oscilantes de industriales con terratenientes o asalariados buscando un tipo de cambio real favorable en un juego de suma cero. La estabilización con el enfoque monetario de la balanza de pagos es imposible. El modelo teórico formaliza la crisis estructural de economías periféricas que financian industrias tecnológicamente dependientes con exportaciones agrícolas.
A conflict of Ricardian type is arised. Landowners produce exportable salary-goods and consume imported luxury goods. Small industrialists produce non-tradable manufactures with sunk costs by importing capital goods. Employees consume exportable goods and non-tradable manufactures. Quantities are measured in physical units and prices in fiat money. The international currency is fiduciary. There is no equilibrium of pure economy. Price equilibrium does not imply full employment. According to the political management, an increase (reduction) in the real exchange rate benefits (harms) exporters, reduces (increases) the real salary and has oscillating effects on industrial benefits, generating oscillating alliances of the industrialists, with eather landowners or workers, in order to achive a favorable real change rate in a zero sum game. Stabilization with the monetary approach to the balance of payments is impossible. The theoretical model formalizes the structural crisis of peripheral economies that finance technologically dependent industries with agricultural exports
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Revista de métodos cuantitativos para la economía y la empresa, ISSN-e 1886-516X, Vol. 28, 2019, págs. 243-277
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