Analysis of the goal‑scoring opportunities conceded in football: a study case in the Spanish La Liga

Abstract

The study’s aim was to analyse the goal-scoring opportunities conceded by a professional football team. Using observational methodology, all the opportunities conceded (N = 243) by Real Betis in the Spanish La Liga 2017/2018 were analysed through a validated instrument which measured contextual, defensive and attacking variables. Descriptive, inferential, correlational and binary logistic regression statistics were used to determine the predictive models. The results show a relation between the goal-scoring opportunities conceded and the provisional match result, as well as all the defensive and attacking variables analysed. There was a significant relation between the own half loss of the ball (66.3%) and the opportunities conceded. After applying the binary logistic regression, there were significant tactical patterns when the own half loss coincided with other variables: loss between 0′ and 15′ (OR = 4.255) and 46′-60′ (OR = 4.227); 0 or 1 opponent’s pass (OR = 2.829); length of attack less than 3′’ (OR = 5.475) and 1 player of the opposing team got into contact with the ball (OR = 7.358). Other factors such as losing the ball through stealing (OR = 3.127) or the provisional result of a draw (OR = 0.4) predict the possibility of conceding a goal-scoring opportunity in the case studied.