Voting with dissatisfaction: an analysis of the 2019 parliamentary election in Tunisia

Abstract

Tunisia was seen as a democratic success in the Arab world, yet the 2019 parliamentary elections exposed issues. Voter turnout was low, and partisan ties were weak, leading to unprecedented fragmentation and volatility. These trends, linked to citizen dissatisfaction, help explain the widespread support for populist outsider Kaïs Saied in the presidential race, and for populists like Nabil Karoui or Abir Moussi in the parliamentary elections. Since the mid-2010s, citizen dissatisfaction has been evident through increasing social mobilizations and surveys regarding perceptions of institutional performance. This study explores the electoral behaviour of a dissatisfied electorate in the 2019 parliamentary elections and its effect on Tunisia’s transition. Dissatisfaction is crucial for understanding the rise of populist forces and the current authoritarian drift. The principal findings reveal general declining voter participation, frequent shifts in political allegiance within the same ideological bloc and perceiving a lower level of engagement in the secular-right bloc. Finally, a notable response to populist claims, with the emergence of new populist parties in all ideological spheres, is revealed.