Reconstructing the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon since the Late Nineteenth Century

Abstract

A new index, the western North Pacific directional index (WNPDI), based on historical wind direction observations taken aboard sailing ships, has been developed to characterize the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) since 1898. The WNPDI measures the persistence of the surface westerly winds in the region 58–158N, 1008–1308E and easterly winds in the region 208–308N, 1108–1408E, exhibiting a consistent relationship with the summer precipitation in the areas affected by the WNPSM throughout the entire twentieth century. Its length doubles that of the previous WNPSM index (1948–2014) based on reanalysis products, which allows uncovering different relevant features of the WNPSM variability. The WNPSM had a significant interdecadal variability throughout the twentieth century. In particular, the period 1918–48 was characterized by less variable and stronger monsoons than in recent decades. Additionally, the relationship between the WNPSM and ENSO or El Niño Modoki has been evaluated during the entire twentieth century for the first time. It is confirmed that the WNPSM tends to be strong (weak) when El Niño (La Niña) develops during the whole record. Nevertheless, the relationship during the ENSO-decaying phase is not stable in time. Thus, the WNPSM tended to be strong (weak) when La Niña (El Niño) decayed only since the late 1950s, with an opposite relationship in the earliest part of the record. El Niño Modoki shows a rather stable and high correlation with the WNPDI during the whole study period throughout the twentieth century.