Peña Ortiz, Cristina

Profesor/a Titular de Universidad
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First Name
Last Name
Peña Ortiz
Universidad Pablo de Olavide
Sistemas Físicos, Químicos y Naturales
Research Center
Física de la Tierra
Research Group
Ciencias de la Tierra y de la Atmósfera
Recursos Naturales, Energía y Medio Ambiente
PhD programs
Estudios Integrados en Ciencias de la Tierra
UPO investigaORCIDScopus Author IDDialnet ID

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Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
  • Publication
    Long term variability of the northerly winds over the Eastern Mediterranean as seen from historical wind observations
    (ELSEVIER, 2018-10-29) Gómez Delgado, Francisco de Paula; Gallego Puyol, David; Peña Ortiz, Cristina; Vega Martín, Inmaculada; Ribera, Pedro; Gracía Herrera Ricardo
    The summer circulation over the eastern Mediterranean is characterized by a persistent northerly regime whose interannual variability is modulated both by mid and tropical latitudes. In this paper, we use historical wind observations taken aboard ships to assemble the first purely instrumental index quantifying this wind system since 1880. This has allowed evaluating the multidecadal and interannual variability of the northerlies in the eastern Mediterranean over the longest time period so far. Our results indicate that the first half of the 20th century was characterized by more frequent and persistent northerly winds in the eastern Mediterranean than the second half. We have also found that the well-known teleconnection between the eastern Mediterranean summertime winds and the Indian Summer Monsoon, with enhanced northerlies concurrent with a stronger monsoon, has not been steady along the 20th century. It is shown that the Indian summer monsoon modulation of convection over the western Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in the strength of this connection.
  • Publication
    Internal variability and external forcings in the ocean–atmosphere multidecadal oscillator over the North Atlantic
    (Springer Link, 2020-05-23) Ribera Rodríguez Pedro; Ordónez Paulina; Gallego Puyol David; Peña Ortiz, Cristina
    In this paper, we generalize the concept of “external forcing” to include any mechanism that modulates the long-term evolution of a meteorological variable but is not directly related to the internal variability of the climate system. Applying this concept, the corresponding ‘external forcings’ are removed from several long record datasets of oceanic and atmospheric variables at the surface in the North Atlantic. We perform a multivariate analysis in the frequency domain over both the original data felds and the new ‘internal variability’ felds. This multivariate analysis is based on a MultiTaper Method-Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD). It is noteworthy that, after the removal of the external forcings, there is an almost perfect alignment of the main multidecadal oscillatory band (f=0.21 cycles/decade) with all the spectra of the analysed felds. This alignment was not observed before the external forcings were removed. Particularly striking is the case of the sea level pressure (SLP), which shows a notable variation in its oscillation period despite the fact that this variable has traditionally been considered to be unafected, at global scale, by any external forcing. The external forcing in the SLP records is very probably caused by the scarcity of the observed data during the frst hundred years of the record (most evident, during the earliest decades), by the spatial distribution of those observations and, possibly, by the assimilation model employed to build those long record datasets. When we analysed the relationship between the ocean and the atmosphere using this approach, we found strong evidence of a cyclic behaviour in which oceanic conditions modulate the atmospheric variability, with a lead time of up to about 10 years.
  • Publication
    Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming
    (Elsevier, 2020-03-29) Huber, Veronika; Krummenauerb Linda; Peña Ortiz, Cristina; Lange Stefan; Gasparrini Antonio; Vicedo-Cabrera Ana M.; García Herrera Ricardo; Frielerb Katja
    Background Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe. Methods We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993–2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability. Results In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82–7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72–0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 °C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: −0.02–1.06) at 3 °C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96–2.06) at 4 °C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60–4.10) at 5 °C, compared to today's warming level of 1 °C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 °C versus 1 °C of GMT rise. Conclusions Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.
  • Publication
    Evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortality
    (IOPscience, 2022-04-08) Huber Veronika; Peña Ortiz, Cristina; Gallego Puyol David; Lange Stefan; Sera Francesco
    Few studies have used empirical evidence of past adaptation to project temperature-related excess mortality under climate change. Here, we assess adaptation in future projections of temperature-related excess mortality by employing evidence of shifting minimum mortality temperatures (MMTs) concurrent with climate warming of recent decades. The study is based on daily non-external mortality and daily mean temperature time-series from 11 Spanish cities covering four decades (1978–2017). It employs distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to describe temperature-mortality associations, and multivariate mixed-effect meta-regression models to derive city- and subperiod-specific MMTs, and subsequently MMT associations with climatic indicators. We use temperature projections for one low- and one high-emission scenario (ssp126, ssp370) derived from five global climate models. Our results show that MMTs have closely tracked mean summer temperatures (MSTs) over time and space, with meta-regression models suggesting that the MMTs increased by 0.73 °C (95%CI: 0.65, 0.80) per 1 °C rise in MST over time, and by 0.84 °C (95%CI: 0.76, 0.92) per 1 °C rise in MST across cities. Future projections, which include adaptation by shifting MMTs according to observed temporal changes, result in 63.5% (95%CI: 50.0, 81.2) lower heat-related excess mortality, 63.7% (95%CI: 30.2, 166.7) higher cold-related excess mortality, and 11.2% (95%CI: −5.5, 39.5) lower total temperature-related excess mortality in the 2090s for ssp370 compared to estimates that do not account for adaptation. For ssp126, assumptions on adaptation have a comparatively small impact on excess mortality estimates. Elucidating the adaptive capacities of societies can motivate strengthened efforts to implement specific adaptation measures directed at reducing heat stress under climate change.
  • Publication
    Reconstructing the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon since the Late Nineteenth Century
    (American Meteorological Society, 2018-01-01) Vega Inmaculada; Gallego Puyol David; Ribera Rodríguez Pedro; Gómez Delgado Francisco de Paula; García Herrera Ricardo; Peña Ortiz, Cristina
    A new index, the western North Pacific directional index (WNPDI), based on historical wind direction observations taken aboard sailing ships, has been developed to characterize the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) since 1898. The WNPDI measures the persistence of the surface westerly winds in the region 58–158N, 1008–1308E and easterly winds in the region 208–308N, 1108–1408E, exhibiting a consistent relationship with the summer precipitation in the areas affected by the WNPSM throughout the entire twentieth century. Its length doubles that of the previous WNPSM index (1948–2014) based on reanalysis products, which allows uncovering different relevant features of the WNPSM variability. The WNPSM had a significant interdecadal variability throughout the twentieth century. In particular, the period 1918–48 was characterized by less variable and stronger monsoons than in recent decades. Additionally, the relationship between the WNPSM and ENSO or El Niño Modoki has been evaluated during the entire twentieth century for the first time. It is confirmed that the WNPSM tends to be strong (weak) when El Niño (La Niña) develops during the whole record. Nevertheless, the relationship during the ENSO-decaying phase is not stable in time. Thus, the WNPSM tended to be strong (weak) when La Niña (El Niño) decayed only since the late 1950s, with an opposite relationship in the earliest part of the record. El Niño Modoki shows a rather stable and high correlation with the WNPDI during the whole study period throughout the twentieth century
  • Publication
    Processes influencing lower stratospheric water vapour in monsoon anticyclones: insights from Lagrangian modelling
    (European Geophysical Union, 2021-06-28) Plaza Martín Nuria; Podglajen Aurélien; Peña Ortiz, Cristina; Ploeger Felix
    We investigate the influence of different chemical and physical processes on the water vapour distribution in the lower stratosphere (LS), in particular in the Asian and North American monsoon anticyclones (AMA and NAMA, respectively). Specifically, we use the chemistry transport model CLaMS to analyse the effects of large-scale temperatures, methane oxidation, ice microphysics, and small-scale atmospheric mixing processes in different model experiments. All these processes hydrate the LS and, particularly, the AMA. While ice microphysics has the largest global moistening impact, it is small-scale mixing which dominates the specific signature in the AMA in the model experiments. In particular, the small-scale mixing parameterization strongly contributes to the water vapour transport to this region and improves the simulation of the intra-seasonal variability, resulting in a better agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations. Although none of our experiments reproduces the spatial pattern of the NAMA as seen in MLS observations, they all exhibit a realistic annual cycle and intra-seasonal variability, which are mainly controlled by large-scale temperatures. We further analyse the sensitivity of these results to the domain-filling trajectory set-up, herecalled Lagrangian trajectory filling (LTF). Compared with MLS observations and with a multiyear reference simulation using the full-blown chemistry transport model version of CLaMS, we find that the LTF schemes result in a drier global LS and in a weaker water vapour signal over the monsoon regions, which is likely related to the specification of the lower boundary condition. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of subgrid-scale mixing and multiple transport pathways from the troposphere in representing water vapour in the AMA.
  • Publication
    Tropical Deep Convection Impact on Southern Winter Stationary Waves and Its Modulation by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
    (American Meteorological Society, 2019-11-01) Peña Ortiz, Cristina; Manzini Elisa; Giorgetta Marco
    The impact of tropical deep convection on southern winter stationary waves and its modulation by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) have been investigated in a long (210 year) climate model simulation and in ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period 1979–2018. Model results reveal that tropical deep convection over the region of its climatological maximum modulates high-latitude stationary planetary waves in the southern winter hemisphere, corroborating the dominant role of tropical thermal forcing in the generation of these waves. In the tropics, deep convection enhancement leads to wavenumber-1 eddy anomalies that reinforce the climatological Rossby–Kelvin wave couplet. The Rossby wave propagates toward the extratropical southern winter hemisphere and upward through the winter stratosphere reinforcing wavenumber-1 climatological eddies. As a consequence, stronger tropical deep convection is related to greater upward wave propagation and, consequently, to a stronger Brewer–Dobson circulation and a warmer polar winter stratosphere. This linkage between tropical deep convection and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter polar vortex is also found in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, model results indicate that the enhancement of deep convection observed during the easterly phase of the QBO (E-QBO) gives rise to a similar modulation of the southern winter extratropical stratosphere, which suggests that the QBO modulation of convection plays a fundamental role in the transmission of the QBO signature to the southern stratosphere during the austral winter, revealing a new pathway for the QBO–SH polar vortex connection. ERA-Interim corroborates a QBO modulation of deep convection; however, the shorter data record does not allow us to assess its possible impact on the SH polar vortex.